STREAM FLOW FORECASTING AND ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF RESERVOIR OPERATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIBB RESERVOIR

Abstract

Until now electric power is the major problem for ruler areas coupled with climate change posing a serious problem for a world in which this impact is significant on the water resource system and availability. This study mainl y focuses on forecasting stream flow and reservoir operation by assessing the performance o f Ribb reservoir under the impact of climate change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV) for base and future scenario. The base and future climate variables which develop on three base periods (1993-2006), short (2017-2030) and long (2047-2060) with their RCP correction with 4.5 emission scenario was used for future flow simulation .The projected mean annual maximum temperature decrease f r o m the baseline period by 1.3 0 C and 2.1 0 C for short-term and long-term respectivel y whereas minimum temperature increases by 2.1 0 C, and 2.0 0 C respectively. Generally the projected future maximum and minimum temperature shows decreasing and increasing trend whereas precipitation shows increase by 0.8% fort short period from base and decrease by 0.4% for long term from short. For stream flow generation and reservoirs inflow estimation, HEC-HMS model was used using the bias corrected. After the flow was forecasted, the performance of the model was assessed by coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and percentage deference of 0.702, 0.7723, 0.0703 and 0.713, 0.787, 0.074 with calibration and validation result. Performance indices (RRV) Final result was done with and without hydropower have Rt value greater than 85%, Rv greater than 80%, Resilience and vulnerability average value of 40% and 18%. Finally MODSIM model was used to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production. In addition to irrigation, water supply and environmental demand the analysis shows that it is possible to produce maximum of 10496.05 KW and 9863.028 KW for short and long term respectively and minimum power of 5099.59KW and 4973.47KW for short and long term future scenario respectively