Abstract:
Until now electric power is the major problem for ruler areas coupled with climate change
posing a serious problem for a world in which this impact is significant on the water resource
system and availability. This study mainl y focuses on forecasting stream flow and reservoir
operation by assessing the performance o f Ribb reservoir under the impact of climate
change using Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability indices (RRV) for base and future
scenario.
The base and future climate variables which develop on three base periods (1993-2006),
short (2017-2030) and long (2047-2060) with their RCP correction with 4.5 emission scenario
was used for future flow simulation .The projected mean annual maximum temperature
decrease f r o m the baseline period by 1.3
0
C and 2.1
0
C for short-term and long-term
respectivel y whereas minimum temperature increases by 2.1
0
C, and 2.0
0
C respectively.
Generally the projected future maximum and minimum temperature shows decreasing and
increasing trend whereas precipitation shows increase by 0.8% fort short period from base
and decrease by 0.4% for long term from short.
For stream flow generation and reservoirs inflow estimation, HEC-HMS model was used
using the bias corrected. After the flow was forecasted, the performance of the model was
assessed by coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and percentage
deference of 0.702, 0.7723, 0.0703 and 0.713, 0.787, 0.074 with calibration and validation
result. Performance indices (RRV) Final result was done with and without hydropower have
Rt value greater than 85%, Rv greater than 80%, Resilience and vulnerability average value of
40% and 18%.
Finally MODSIM model was used to simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power
production. In addition to irrigation, water supply and environmental demand the analysis
shows that it is possible to produce maximum of 10496.05 KW and 9863.028 KW for short and
long term respectively and minimum power of 5099.59KW and 4973.47KW for short and long
term future scenario respectively
