CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND DRY SPELLS IN DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS OF NORTH WESTERN ETHIOPIA: LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY AND DETERMINANTS OF ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES AMONG FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN EBENAT DISTRICT

Abstract

Climate variability increases the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture due to more frequent droughts, necessitating adaptive strategies for smallholder farmers. This study examines intra-seasonal climate variability, specifically season duration and dry spells, in six drought-prone districts of North Western Ethiopia, using rainfall and temperature data from 1992 to 2021. Statistical methods include a Markov Chain model for rainfall patterns and dry spells, along with a Modified Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze trends in growing season onset and duration. The study also assesses livelihood vulnerability and adaptive strategies among 382 farm households in Ebenat district using the Composite Livelihood Vulnerability Index. A Multivariate Probit model explores the relationship between adaptive strategies and their determinants, with socioeconomic analysis across three livelihood zones, all at a significance level of p < 0.05. The findings reveal that the growing season starts in early June in Adiszemen and late June in Ebenat, lasting an average of 148 and 112 days, respectively. Kiremt rainfall (June to September) accounts for 72% to 86% of annual rainfall, showing a mono-modal pattern with high rainfall probabilities (80-100%) and low dry spell risks (0-20%). However, significant dry spells occur before and after this season, impacting rain-dependent activities. Seasonal dry spells are minimal during the growing season but peak at 90 to 100% outside it. This information is vital for risk assessment and crop selection: risk-taking farmers may choose longer-maturity crops, while risk-averse farmers should opt for shorter-maturity options. The study also identifies the El Niño-Southern Oscillation as a key factor influencing seasonal rainfall, noting that the area has faced drought in 10 to 12 of the past 30 years, with temperatures rising by up to 0.485°C/year. Ebenat district is particularly impacted, highlighting the need for further research on climate-induced vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for rain-fed livelihoods. The livelihood vulnerability assessment reveals that the Tekeze lowland zone is the most affected, scoring 0.61 due to high exposure (0.67) and sensitivity (0.52), coupled with a moderate adaptive capacity of 0.47. The northeastern zone scored 0.51, while Tana Zuria showed moderate vulnerability (0.46) but better adaptive capacity (0.53). These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions. Farmers employ various adaptive strategies, including soil and water conservation (61%), adjusting planting times (59%), crop rotation (54%), and livelihood diversification (53%), with soil and water conservation prioritized for its immediate erosion prevention benefits. Joint adoption analysis shows that 20% value collective efforts, while 26% use multiple strategies. A correlation matrix indicates significant positive relationships among these strategies, with multiple adopters reporting higher incomes (log income: 5.333 vs. 4.928 for non adopters). However, only 10% to 14% find their strategies effective, highlighting the need for increased support for small-scale farmers. Key adoption factors include age and gender, with older male farmers more likely to adopt. Access to social groups, credit, and extension services enhances strategy implementation. The Tekeze lowland lacks adequate weather information and improved seeds, highlighting the need for prioritized support. Negative correlations between credit access and adaptive strategies emphasize the necessity for inclusive support systems. To boost resilience, flexible, agriculture-focused credit and improved seed promotion are vital, particularly for older farmers.