DROUGHT ANALYSIS IN BURUNDI IN RELATION TO AGRICULTURE

Abstract

The objective of the study is to understand the rainfall variation in space and time in the study area and analyze drought characteristics: intensity, duration, frequency, severity. In this study, the differences in spatial patterns of drought over a range of time scales were analyzed by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPl).Missing data were filled using Simple Average Method and Normal ratio Method. Consistency or homogeneity were tested using SPLIT RECORD TEST (F-test for stability of variance and t-test for stability of mean).Easy Fit software was used for fitting the best distribution. In this study, during the period investigated, the results show that the rainfall decreased from 1989 but the decrease becomes stronger from 2000.ln this period, the SPI for multiple scales under consideration namely 12 months (Jan­ Dec), 8 months (Oct-May), 4 months (Oct-Jan), and 4 months (Feb-May) has been computed for all selected stations. The relationship between rainfall variability and drought event over the country was studied. The ratio is less than 25% and therefore, the variability is moderate in Burundi. Based on year 2005, it was found that the eastern part region of Burundi has the highest coefficient value (20%-32%) and the results show that there is a trend of SPI negative values from the year 2000 up to 2005 for all selected stations in general and the eastern part area in particular which implies that the eastern region of Burundi is vulnerable to drought. In fact, the maximum duration (64 months) was recorded at Giharo station, the maximum severity (8.43), maximum magnitude (0 . 19) and maximum intensity (-3.57) were found at Kinyinya station). It appears that period of drought have been quite frequent starting from 2000, with SPI ranging from about -1 to about -3. vi