IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ASSESSMENT OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN THE LIVELIHOOD OF PEOPLE IN GAMO-GOFA, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Global climate change is real and accepted universally as an anatomy of the silent crises. Gamo Gofa mainly based on rain fed agriculture, which is prone to varieties of weather and climate shocks. The aim of this research is projections of climate change and assessment of meteorological drought in five districts of Gamo-Gofa zone, Southern Ethiopia. Instruments used in this study are: Arc GIS 9.3 version to locate study areas; SDSM, HADCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) with (A2a , B2a) emission scenarios (predictors) and SPI for drought analysis and cropwat8.0 for crop yields. The increase in mean maximum and precipitation are projected as 0.102 0 C and 7.88%, 0.504 0 C and 29.31%, 1.6 0 C and 73.5% respectively in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for the base period (1984-2013). Besides deforestation, charcoal ( kasele) production population growth and agricultural land expansions were indicters of climate change and drought. Drought is a slow onset phenomenon that affects people’s socio-economic activities to a great extent. It is one of the most dangerous natural hazards because it is very difficult to identify its onset. In Ethiopia, Gamo-Gofa is one of the states which face drought generally once in three years. Monitoring of drought by various drought indices has a great potential in mitigation the future droughts. SPI has been used to monitor drought in five districts, Gamo Gofa, Ethiopia. It has been calculated for 3-month, 6-month, 12- month and 24-month time scales to decide the effect of rainfall scarcity on the various natural resources. The SPI value will give information about drought characteristics i.e. A real extent, Duration, Magnitude, Severity, average duration of drought intensity and spatial extent for five districts are assessed. The monthly rainfall data of 5 rainfall stations named Kamba, Geresse, Arba minch, Chancha and Mirab Abya, has been collected for the period of 1974-2013 to calculate SPI. The results suggest that Gamo-Gofa Zone had felt severe drought in 1990 Arba Minch Station. On an average there is a condition of Mild drought in Gamo-Gofa zone once in three years. It can be also concluded that since 2009 Gamo-Gofa zone has not felt any severe drought. The recent drought during 1974-2013 results indicate that with an increase in return period and time scale, the duration of drought will be increased. In addition cropwat8.0 is used for yield reduction for drought years.