A THESIS SUBMITTED TO DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, COLLEGE OF NATURAL SCIENCE, SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES, ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED STATISTICS

Abstract

A road traffic accident is defined as any vehicle accident occurring on a public highway. Road traffic accidents are serious public health problem both in developed and developing countries. The main objective of this study was to assess the determinants of road traffic accidents in Gamo Gofa Zone. The populations are individuals who were involved in 608 road traffic accidents between 2007 and 2011E.C. This study used only secondary data sources obtained from Gamo Gofa Zone Traffic Control and Investigation Office. All registered road traffic accidents in Gamo Gofa Zone covering the period from 2007 to 2011 E.C police stations of all 15 woreda’s and two special towns. In this study both Binary logistic and Bayesian model were used to model data. From both binary logistic regression and Bayesian analysis there is sufficient evidence that marital status, major cause of RTAs while driving, vehicle relationship and driving license level have statistically significant effect on road traffic accident. High rate of traffic accidents can be significantly reduced through a little attention just by means of educating the people about severity and misery of the accidents. Policy makers should promulgate a law that would restrict driving to a certain marital status, major cause aortas while driving, vehicle relationship and driving license level.