VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION AND WELFARE OF PASTORAL HOUSEHOLDS IN SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN OROMIA, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

The general objective of the study is to assess the vulnerability of the livelihoods of pastoral households to climate change and variability and factors affecting livelihood diversification as well as to examine the impact of livelihood diversification as a climate change adaptation strategy on the food welfare of pastoral households in Southeastern and Southern Ethiopia. The study used the livelihood vulnerability index of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework and four econometric models, namely Multinomial Probit, Ordered Logit, Tobit and Multinomial Switching regression models. The study revealed that pastoral households in Arero were more vulnerable to climate change and variability in terms of exposure and sensitivity than the samples from the Rayitu district. However, the pastoral households in the Rayitu district had less adaptive capacity to climate shocks compared to pastoralists in Arero district. Moreover, the result of the multinomial probit model showed being a male-headed household, the age of the household head and distance to market have negative and significant influences on the adoption of livelihood options. The study also found that the level of education of the household head, frequency of extension worker’s contact, farmland size, livestock shock, and access to climate and weather information have a positive significant influence on the choice of adaptation options. On the other hand, the result of ordered logistic regression showed that herd size, and frequency of extension contacts have positive significant effects on the food security status of pastoral households in the two districts. On the contrary, male headed households, age of household head, household size and distance to market were found to have significant negative effects on the food security status of pastoral households. Similarly, the results of Tobit regression model revealed that the age of the household head, household size, and distance to the nearest market have significantly increased the poverty level of the pastoral households. The result of the multinomial endogenous switching regression model showed that the uptake of non-farm activities as well as crop production and non-farm activities together have a positive and significant impact on the level of food security of the pastoral households. Finally, the output of the multinomial endogenous switching regression model showed that the joint adoption of non-farm activities and crop production had significantly reduced the poverty level of pastoral households. Therefore, the results of the study suggest that working on participatory strategies to promote livelihood diversification among pastoral communities is very important to improve the food security and reduce poverty depth of pastoral households.