Abstract:
Until now electric power is the major problem for rural areas coupled with climate change
posing a serious problem for a world in which this impact is significant on the water resource
system and availability. This study mainl y focuses on developing reservoir operation rule and
assessing hydropower options on Ribb irrigation dam under climate change.
The base and future climate variables which develop on three periods those are base (1993-2006), short (2017-2030) and long (2047-2060) with their RCP correction with 4.5 emission
scenario was used for future flow simulation. HEC-HMS model was used for stream flow
generation and reservoirs inflow estimation using the bias corrected data. After the flow was
forecasted, the performance of the model was assessed. Finally MODSIM model was used to
simulate and optimize reservoir operation and Power production in addition to irrigation, water
supply and environmental demand.
The projected mean average maximum temperature increase from the baseline period by
1.1
0
C and 1.8
0
C for short-term and long-term respectivel y. Whereas minimum
temperature increases by 0.2
0
C, and 0.56
0
C respectively whereas precipitation shows
decrease by 1.15% and 1.35% for short and long term.
The model performances result display in terms of (R
2
), (NSE) and (D) have 0.70, 0.77, and 7%
for the calibration and for validation 0.71, 0.78, 7%. Performance indices (RRV) Final result
was done Rt value greater than 85%, Rv greater than 80%, Resilience and vulnerability average
value of 40% and 18%. Finally power produce maximum of 10496.05 KW and 9863.028 KW
for short and long term respectively and minimum power of 5099.59KW and 4973.47KW for
short and long term future scenario respectively.
Generally temperature for future scenario have an increasing trend unlikely precipitation
and flow data have decreasing value for the future. In this case the value for new power
generation decrease for future.
Finally, Protection of the floodplain and the catchment has a double advantage of sustaining the
power supply there by protecting the catchment and increasing the reservoir volume.
